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But historians are not so sure. It was first introduced in the four short stories — which would later be collected as the novel Foundation. Axioms Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events.
Asimov used the analogy of a gas: An observer has great difficulty in predicting the Goals are the stepping stone to attain success in the future of a single molecule in a gas, but with the kinetic theory can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy.
Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empirewhich numbered one quintillion.
Ebling Mis added these axioms That there would be no fundamental change in the society That human reactions to stimuli would remain constant. Golan Trevize in Foundation and Earth added this axiom that humans are the only sentient intelligence in the galaxy.
Limitations The fact that Seldon established a Second Foundation of mental-science adepts to oversee his Seldon Plan might suggest that even Seldon himself had doubts about the ultimate ability of a purely mathematical approach to predicting historical processes, and that he recognized that the development of psychic skills, such as those used by the Mulehad the ability to invalidate the assumptions underlying his models, though he did not and could not predict the appearance of the Mule himself.
The Seldon methodology might therefore only work at a certain level of species-development, and would over time become less useful. Psychohistory has one basic, underlying limitation which Asimov postulated for the first time on the last page of the final book in the Foundation series: Seldon developed psychohistory to predict the actions of large groups of humans.
Even robots technically fall under the umbrella of psychohistory, because humans built them, and they thus represent more or less a human "action", or at least, possess a thought-framework similar enough to that of their human creators that psychohistory can predict their actions. However, psychohistory cannot predict the actions of a sentient alien race; their psychology may differ so much from that of humans that normal psychohistory cannot understand or predict their actions.
The end of the series offered two possibilities: However, statistically two or more alien races might evolve in the same galaxy, leading them into inevitable conflict. The fighting in this other galaxy would only end when one race emerged the victor, and after the prolonged conflict with other races, would have developed an aggressive and expansionist mindset.
In contrast, humans had never encountered another sentient species in the Milky Way Galaxy, so they never felt greatly compelled to expand to other galaxies, but instead to fight other humans over control of the Milky Way.
Eventually, such an aggressive alien race would expand from galaxy to galaxy, and try to invade the Milky Way Galaxy. Asimovian psychohistory and similar concepts in other fiction Legend of the Galactic Heroes November — The concept of psychohistory appears in this novel by Yoshiki Tanaka.
Flynn creates competing groups of psychohistorians. Ghost Rider May — In issue 1, a group of AIs predict that human society and therefore the global network in which the AIs exist will crash in One of them mentions that Asimov conceived the idea of such a mathematical model.
Deep Space Nine — In the episode " Statistical Probabilities ", a think tank uses mathematics to predict the future in a manner likely to be a reference to Asimov. Preserver — In this novel by William Shatnerthe science of psychohistory is used and mentioned by name by scholars at outpost Memory Alpha.
Memory Alpha was shown in the Star Trek: Original Series episode " The Lights of Zetar ", although psychohistory was never mentioned in the episode. Fantastic Four January — In issueMister Fantastic reveals his real reason for supporting the superhero registration act which prompted the Civil War: House of Suns — This novel by Alastair Reynolds features a device called the "Universal Actuary", which aims to predict the future of civilisations in a manner very similar to psychohistory.
As the limits of slower-than-light travel prevent any interstellar civilisations from lasting very long, one of its most important uses is to determine how much longer a given civilisation will last.
Fallout 4 — In the video game developed by Bethesda Softworksa robot dubbed P. Predictive Analytical Machine uses algorithms to make predictions of the future. However, her capabilities are limited due to the complexity of human free will and she has to adjust her algorithms constantly, especially when the player character shows up.
Outside fiction Polymath Adolphe Quetelet developed in the 19th century what he called "social physics". Quetelet studied the statistical laws underlying the behaviour of what he called "average man".
Complexity theory, an offshoot of chaos mathematics theory, explored by Stuart Kauffman in his books "At Home in the Universe" and "Redefining the Sacred" cover the concept of statistical modeling of sociological evolutions.
Essentially, generations immediately after a major crisis event civil war, world war will be unwilling to live through such events again and will be risk-averse.
Generations after them may well be aware of previous crisis events, but will be more risk-tolerant, as they have not been exposed to the crisis themselves.
The Life Cycles of Imperial Nations - his science is called cliodynamics. Nathan Eagle and Alex Pentland among others have developed useful techniques for predicting human behavior through statistical analysis of smartphone data.
At the 67th science-fiction world convention in Montreal, Paul Krugman, the Nobel laureate in Economics, mentioned Hari Seldon, a central character in Foundation who was a psychohistorian, as his inspiration to study Economics since it is the closest thing to Psychohistory, according to P.
The Living Earth Simulatora platform of the proposed FuturICT project, aims to simulate social and economic developments on a global scale in order to anticipate and predict global phenomena, like for example financial crisis.
This work demonstrates, based on historical records and mathematical modeling, the existence of universal patterns of collective unrest across countries and regions.
Looking at several revealed conspiracies, the estimated chance of a conspiracy being busted is 4 parts per million per year per conspirator, combining history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people.Great goals are the stepping-stones.
They’re the benchmarks. The mile markers. reverse engineering can help you break apart the various elements of your future success and identify the specific steps you need to take to get there.
Then you turn those steps into goals. so you can achieve your biz goals, make more money, and have more. they become stepping stones –movement toward being successful in the future.
Two – Choose an effort you are making to achieve something important and identify one or more stepping. Overview IIBA® UK Chapter and BCS, The Chartered Institute for IT Collaborating across the community to represent and grow the Business Analysis profession.
Generally, success occurs when hard work meets opportunity; but it entirely differs from person to person how an opportunity has been utilized and what fruit is been reaped from that opportunity.
Success is an achievement of a goal within a particular time period. Success can either be achieved in the workplace or in your personal life. Introduction When it comes to planning the future, many people drift aimlessly from day to day, year-to-year, with little focus or long-term direction.
Where as other people--a small minority--meticulously set goals and ruthlessly conform to a never-ending regimen of daily planners, color-c.
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